Analysing Reform UK's 2024 Contract Through a Policy Design Lens
Leveraging concepts from the Lighthouse Policy Design framework such as the Policy Matrix and Levers, let’s explore some key elements of the Reform UK Contract through the lens of strategic policy development.
What is The Policy Matrix?
The Policy Matrix is a powerful tool for policymakers, enabling them to categorise and select Policy Levers based on the urgency of impact and the method of implementation.
A ‘Policy Lever’ is a tool that policymakers can use to influence outcomes in specific areas. Levers can take various forms, such as regulations, incentives, public awareness campaigns, partnerships, or direct interventions.
The Economy
Reform UK aims to revitalise the economy through a combination of significant tax cuts, stringent regulatory reforms, and strategic nationalisation of key utilities. Central to their approach are the tax and regulate levers, which they plan to pull extensively to stimulate economic growth and efficiency.
Their economic strategy involves raising the income tax threshold to £20,000, abolishing inheritance tax for estates under £2 million, and reducing both energy and corporation taxes. These measures aim to reduce the tax burden on individuals and businesses, encouraging spending and investment.
Reform UK plans to cut government spending by enhancing efficiency and reducing waste. While the contract does not offer detailed explanations on how this will be achieved, we can speculate that innovate and monitor levers may form part of the approach. They claim this will save £50 billion annually, which will be reallocated to support their economic initiatives.
Reform UK's approach includes nationalising (transfer) 50% of key utility companies, such as those managing railways and water services. This move is intended to ensure these essential services are operated in the public interest, focusing on efficiency and sustainability.
Risks:
Economic disruption: Nationalising major industries could face significant logistical and financial challenges.
Financial sustainability: The proposed tax cuts and spending increases, estimated at nearly £90 billion annually, may not be fully covered by the projected savings, potentially leading to budget deficits. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) suggests that the savings from reducing wasteful spending and changes in how the Bank of England pays interest might be overly optimistic.
Public acceptance: Resistance from industries and individuals affected by new tax policies and nationalisation plans may pose challenges.
Health
Reform UK aims to address NHS challenges through tax incentives, efficiency improvements, and independent healthcare providers. Central to their approach are the subsidise, regulate, and influence levers.
Their strategy includes 20% tax relief on private healthcare and insurance to relieve NHS pressure. They plan to subsidise independent and not-for-profit health provision for faster, better care. They propose zero basic rate tax for three years for all frontline NHS and social care staff, and writing off student fees for those serving ten years in the NHS.
A new NHS voucher scheme will provide private treatment if NHS waiting times are exceeded, ensuring services remain free at the point of use.
To cut A&E waiting times, they propose a ‘Pharmacy First, GP Second, A&E Last’ campaign (influence), offering tax incentives for new pharmacies and those employing more staff.
Reform UK claims its policies will eradicate NHS waiting lists in two years, proposing increased use of the private sector to alleviate pressure on NHS services. They also advocate for a new NHS funding model inspired by insurance-based systems like France.
Risks:
Implementation challenges: Integrating independent healthcare providers and the voucher scheme may face logistical hurdles.
Funding allocation: Ensuring adequate funding without straining NHS resources. 20% tax relief for private healthcare could divert funds from public services to profitable businesses, potentially reducing overall NHS funding.
Public acceptance: Overcoming resistance to increased private healthcare solutions and ensuring equitable access.
NHS workforce impact: Encouraging NHS staff to move to the private sector could leave the NHS worse off, as noted by the Nuffield Trust.
Education
Reform UK claims they will overhaul the education system to focus on traditional values, character-building, and practical skills. Central to their approach are the educate, subsidise, and regulate levers, aiming to foster what they describe as a patriotic curriculum in primary and secondary schools, reduce financial burdens on students, and enhance school discipline.
Their strategy includes ‘balancing’ the teaching of British and European imperialism with non-European occurrences. They plan to legislate banning transgender ideology in schools, ensuring single-sex facilities and parental involvement in decisions for children under 16.
Reform UK proposes tax relief of 20% on all independent education, removing VAT on fees to encourage more parents to opt for private schools, thus reducing pressure on state schools. They also plan to subsidise scrapping interest on student loans, extending repayment periods to 45 years, and restricting undergraduate numbers to ensure quality education.
They advocate for permanent exclusions for violent and disruptive students, with an increase in Pupil Referral Units (PRUs) to maintain school safety. Additionally, they support two-year undergraduate courses to reduce student debt and facilitate earlier entry into the workforce.
Risks:
Implementation challenges: Overhauling curricula and enforcing new educational policies may face resistance from educational institutions and require significant logistical efforts.
Funding allocation: Ensuring sustained funding for new educational programs and tax relief initiatives without causing financial strain on the education budget.
Public acceptance: Balancing controversial policies like banning transgender ideology and ensuring a ‘patriotic curriculum’ may lead to public debate and resistance.
Institutional resistance: Resistance from universities and educators to changes in student loan structures and undergraduate course durations.
Environment
Reform UK aims to change the UK's environmental policies by rejecting Net Zero commitments. Central to their approach are the regulate and tax levers, focusing on altering the energy and environmental landscape.
They claim their strategy of scrapping Net Zero commitments and related subsidies, will result in savings of over £30 billion annually for 25 years. Reform UK supports fast-tracking licences for North Sea gas and oil, granting shale gas licences on test sites, and enabling major production when safety is proven. They advocate for investment in clean nuclear energy, ethical UK lithium mining, and other innovative energy technologies. Their approach involves collaborating with local communities through compensation schemes and subsidising the development of these technologies.
They have pledged to increase recycling, reduce single-use plastics, and support tree planting. However, they also plan to scrap climate-related farming subsidies, which has drawn criticism from environmental groups.
Reform UK claims that Net Zero policies have increased bills, damaged industries like steelmaking, and compromised energy security. However, experts indicate that rising energy bills are due to the UK's reliance on imported gas, and higher green investment could reduce costs and boost growth.
Risks:
Economic impact: Scrapping renewable energy subsidies could disrupt the renewable energy sector and increase reliance on fossil fuels.
Technological feasibility: Ensuring the reliability and scalability of new energy technologies like nuclear and shale gas.
Public acceptance: Resistance from the public and industries affected by the regulatory changes and new energy policies.
Environmental concerns: Potential environmental risks associated with increased shale gas extraction and other fossil fuel activities.
Agricultural impact: Removing climate-related farming subsidies could negatively affect sustainable agricultural practices and rural economies.
Energy security: The argument that Net Zero damages energy security conflicts with evidence that fossil fuel dependency is a larger risk.
Crime and Justice
Reform UK’s approach to crime and justice centres on increasing police presence and implementing stringent sentencing measures. Key levers in their strategy include regulate and subsidise.
The party pledges to mobilise 40,000 new police officers over a five-year period, aiming to reach 300 officers per 100,000 population. They will legistlate a zero-tolerance approach to crime, significantly increasing the use of stop and search and mandating life imprisonment for drug dealers and repeat violent offenders. Reform UK also plans to build 10,000 new prison places to accommodate the expected increase in incarcerations.
They intend to overhaul policing leadership, showing a strong preference for ex-military personnel, and to amend legislation and regulations by scrapping Diversity, Equality, and Inclusion (DE&I) roles within the police. The party also plans to subsidise the criminal justice system by increasing its budget from £10 billion to £12 billion to reduce delays and clear case backlogs.
Risks:
Public acceptance: Increased stop and search practices may face significant public resistance and potential legal challenges.
Infrastructure costs: Building and maintaining new prison facilities require substantial funding and long-term financial commitments.
Implementation feasibility: Recruiting and training 40,000 new police officers within five years is ambitious and may strain existing resources.
Judicial impact: Implementing mandatory life sentences for a wider range of offences could lead to overcrowded prisons and strain on the judicial system.
Policy effectiveness: Evidence suggests that non-intelligence-led stop and search is not highly effective in reducing crime, raising concerns about the overall efficacy of this approach.
Summary
It’s worth noting that Reform UK’s contract is driven by the belief that immigration is a primary cause of many UK issues, although this isn't directly covered in our policy sections.
Reform UK’s 2024 contract presents an ambitious vision for addressing the UK’s challenges through a mix of regulatory, financial, and innovative measures. However, the contract shows a heavy reliance on immediate levers, creating an imbalance in the policy matrix, potentially neglecting the gradual and indirect measures necessary for sustainable long-term change. The lack of gradual and indirect levers, such as educate and monitor, may undermine policy resilience and effectiveness.
The financial sustainability of Reform UK’s proposals is a significant concern. The substantial commitments for nationalisation, healthcare integration, and policing, coupled with extensive tax cuts, raise the risk of budget deficits. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has highlighted potential shortfalls in projected savings, underscoring the need for careful financial planning and risk management.
Additionally, a position that prioritises individual sovereignty and patriotism may require significant engagement and influence to garner support from those with a more globalist outlook, highlighting the need for effective communication and consensus-building.